Upon his return from a triumphant foreign trip, presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama found himself in a rhetorical box over the improving situation in Iraq, which only a delusional person would not attribute to the troop surge launched in 2007.
For a variety of reasons, many having to do with unmet needs here at home, I agree with Obama that we should gradually reduce our troop footprint in Iraq early in the next presidential term. Ironically, it's the stunning success of the surge, and the growing effectiveness of the Iraqi military, that suddenly makes this a more likely scenario.
Yet Obama can't bring himself to admit the obvious: that the surge has exceeded everyone's expectations in reducing violence, which in turn has given the Iraqi government the space it needs to make progress on various benchmarks. I realize that Obama said the surge wouldn't work, but he should be thankful it did. Why? Because now we can implement his phased withdrawal without Iraq plunging into chaos, something no prospective President should wish upon himself.
Obama will have to eat his words, but he can also remind voters of President Bush's words. While running for re-election four years ago, the President summed up his policy succinctly: "When the Iraqis stand up, we can stand down."
Well, in becoming more effective in handling their own security needs, the Iraqis are standing up. They have become so confident in their ability to stand up that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has more or less endorsed Obama's timetable for withdrawal.
Four years ago, there was nothing in President Bush's rhetoric about permanent bases or a 100-year troop commitment (John McCain's words). Simply put, when the Iraqis were ready, we could leave and/or redeploy. The way things are going, Afghanistan looks like the most likely place.
Obama also can point out that if Bush had launched such a troop surge after the fall of Baghdad in 2003, we probably would have withdrawn by now. In fact, he can remind people that if Bush had been more patient with the United Nations weapons inspection program, we would have found out before the invasion that Iraq had stopped producing weapons of mass destruction - the Administration's primary justification for the war.
By refusing to admit the obvious about the troop surge, Obama has missed an opportunity to explain why his policy is not reckless, as McCain alleges. The Iraqis had to take the hand-off at some point in time, and thanks to the troop surge that time is fast approaching. Suck it up and say so.
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